000			02052cam a2200289 4500
008			701218s1970 mduad grbs i000 0 eng
020			_a0801811554
040			_aDLC _cDLC
050	0	0	_aHG4517 _b.P65
082	0	0	_a658.1'54 _bPOU
100	1		_aPouliquen, Louis Y.
245	1	0	_aRisk analysis in project appraisal /
260			_aBaltimore ; _aLondon : _bPublished for the World Bank [by] the Johns Hopkins University Press, _cc1970.
300			_axi, 79 p. :ill.,
440		0	_aWorld Bank staff occasional papers ; no. 11
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references.
520			_aThe use of risk analysis in project appraisal work is described, and associated methodological problems are highlighted as part of a continuing effort to tackle the problem of uncertainty. A year's experience with the Port of Mogadiscio project supports the utility of risk analysis as a powerful technique that permits the use of a great deal of information that would otherwise be lost. It can accommodate uncertainty about both the viability of a marginal project and the suitability of the design or phasing of a project. The entire framework of risk analysis provides a highly efficient medium of communication, but it requires far more judgment than does traditional analysis. A major methodological problem involves the treatment of correlations between variables. If these correlations are not properly handled, results can be misleading. These conclusions lead to the recommendation that the World Bank should cautiously introduce risk analysis techniques for appraisal work. Consultants should be asked to use risk analysis whenever possible in projects involving problems of optimization or of choice among alternatives.
590			_alje 08/10/2018
591			_aLoans
650		0	_aFinance.
650		0	_aRisk.
650		0	_aEconomic development projects.
710			_aThe World Bank.
856			_uhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/802421468183873609/pdf/OCP110OCRd.pdf
942			_2ddc _cBOOK _n
949			_a658.1'54 POU
999			_c10425 _d10425