TY  - BOOK
AU  - Pouliquen,Louis Y.
ED  - The World Bank.
TI  - Risk analysis in project appraisal
SN  - 0801811554
AV  - HG4517 .P65
U1  - 658.1'54 
PY  - 1970///
CY  - Baltimore, London
PB  - Published for the World Bank [by] the Johns Hopkins University Press
KW  - Finance
KW  - Risk
KW  - Economic development projects
N1  - Includes bibliographical references
N2  - The use of risk analysis in project appraisal work is described, and associated methodological problems are highlighted as part of a continuing effort to tackle the problem of uncertainty. A year's experience with the Port of Mogadiscio project supports the utility of risk analysis as a powerful technique that permits the use of a great deal of information that would otherwise be lost. It can accommodate uncertainty about both the viability of a marginal project and the suitability of the design or phasing of a project. The entire framework of risk analysis provides a highly efficient medium of communication, but it requires far more judgment than does traditional analysis. A major methodological problem involves the treatment of correlations between variables. If these correlations are not properly handled, results can be misleading. These conclusions lead to the recommendation that the World Bank should cautiously introduce risk analysis techniques for appraisal work. Consultants should be asked to use risk analysis whenever possible in projects involving problems of optimization or of choice among alternatives
UR  - http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/802421468183873609/pdf/OCP110OCRd.pdf
ER  -